Charter Keck Cramer recently released its State of the Market H1 2025 report into the BTS and BTR apartment sectors, revealing that while apartment supply is beginning to recover from cyclical troughs in FY2024, markets across Australia remain chronically undersupplied and well short of National Housing Accord targets.
Melbourne’s BTR sector is the most mature of all Australian capital cities and is benefitting from strong renter demand. To accommodate the city’s growing population, Charter Keck Cramer conservatively estimates an underlying annual demand in Melbourne for at least 15K additional apartments per annum (BTS and BTR combined). However there is a projected shortfall of more than 20K apartments through FY2026-2029.
On the other hand, Sydney’s BTR sector continues to mature but remains around half the size of the market in Melbourne. This is due to significantly higher land values and limited site availability, which continue to impact project viability. Sydney needs to deliver 35k apartments per annum to meet the National Housing Accord dwelling target and accommodate population growth.
There is also a projected shortfall of more than 110k new BTS and BTR apartments in Sydney between FY2026-2029.
Turning our focus to Brisbane. The BTR sector is projected to account for an increasing share of overall apartment delivery in Brisbane over the next four years. Charter analysts suggest there is a demand for upwards of 3720 apartments to be delivered in Brisbane with a projected shortfall of more than 7K apartments through FY2026-2029 (BTS and BTR combined).
The Gold Coast is in a period of peak supply, driven by strong rightsizer demand, lifestyle appeal, and major infrastructure upgrades. Recent population forecasts indicate a need for approximately 2,300 new apartments annually to meet growing demand. Over the next four years, BTS and BTR supply is expected to remain aligned with this demand.
Overall, the outlook for BTR and BTS remains positive in the long term but still requires support and intervention.
The full report can be found on Charter Keck Cramer's website.
