Cotality report: Supply gap drives QLD and WA home values to double

A widening gap between population growth and new housing supply has driven a dramatic surge in home values across Queensland and Western Australia, with prices more than doubling since 2020, according to Cotality’s April Housing Chart Pack.

New analysis from Cotality reveals that as both states absorbed a disproportionate share of population growth without matching levels of new construction, home values have skyrocketed, highlighting how constrained supply is reshaping price growth across the country.

Key findings from the Cotality Housing Chart Pack April 2026:

• Australia’s residential real estate total market value rose to $12.6 trillion in March.
• National dwelling values rose 2.1% over the quarter, and accelerated to 9.9% annually in March, the fastest 12-month pace of growth since June 2022.
• Regional markets have been more resilient to a slowdown in value growth, likely supported by regional migration trends and affordability.  
• There is a clear divergence in growth trends, the rolling four-week change has deepened a little across Sydney and Melbourne, while the mid-sized capitals lost some steam.
• Cotality estimates that almost 559,457 sales have transacted in 2026, 1.9% lower than a year ago but 5.6% higher than the five-year average.
• There were 36,712 new listings over the four weeks ending 5 April 2026, down 3.3% compared to March last year.
• Most of the capitals have also seen the number of new listings tracking lower than a year ago, with Brisbane (3.3%) and Hobart (9.1%) the exceptions.
• Rental markets remain extremely tight, recording a vacancy rate of 1.6% in March.
• Gross rental yields nationally rose to 3.57% in March, with Darwin (6.0%) continuing to stand out with the highest gross yields, while Sydney (3.1%) records the lowest.

Cotality head of research Gerard Burg noted Western Australia (WA) and Queensland (QLD) were the primary examples of this trend.

“In WA and QLD, the share of dwelling completions fell well behind the share of population growth, with these states seeing home values more than double since 2020," Burg said.

“QLD accounted for over 25% of the total increase in Australia's population over this period, but less than 20% of the dwellings completed were located in QLD.”

"In WA, across the same period, the share of the country’s population growth was nearly 17%, in contrast just 10% of completed dwellings.”

Burg highlighted that the QLD also recorded the largest population increase in the country, with over 25% of national growth attributed to people migrating likely in pursuit of a lifestyle shift for warmer climate and relative affordability.

"Net migration to QLD has started to slow in the last few quarters, and First Home Buyers may increasingly look to opportunities elsewhere,” Burg said.

At the other end of the spectrum, Victoria (VIC) accounted for the largest share of home completions in this period, around one-third (33%) of the total, outpacing its share of population growth.

“Policy support at both the State and Federal level assisted the growth in VIC dwellings over this period.

"Almost 63% of this new supply in VIC were stand-alone houses, which we see Australians still have a revealed preference for.

"In NSW, for example, the split between houses and units was closer to 50-50,” Burg explained.

Meanwhile, South Australia (SA) remains a notable outlier in the findings, recording strong growth in home values, of over 90% over the five-year period, despite dwelling completions remaining similar to population growth.

“Overall, when we see a supply-demand imbalance such as those in Perth or Brisbane, we wind up with a large pool of buyers competing for a small pool of dwellings," Burg said.

"This creates a seller’s market and can rapidly drive up home values, as we saw in these two capitals.”