National unit prices rose 6.6% annually to the June quarter 2026, but KPMG expects growth to slow sharply to 2.2% for the full calendar year, according to its Residential Property Market Outlook released this month.
That forecast still puts apartments well ahead of houses, with KPMG tipping national house prices to fall 1.1% over 2026 before both segments recover in 2027 - houses up 3.4%, units up 3.7%.
KPMG attributes the gap to affordability, with buyers priced out of houses shifting toward units, alongside stronger rental yields and continued demand for lower-cost housing options.
KPMG points to the expanded 5% Deposit Scheme as a key driver, with its price caps pushing buyer demand toward dwellings that sit below the relevant thresholds - disproportionately benefiting units.
Rental market conditions are reinforcing the trend.
National vacancy rates sat at 1.2% in May 2026, with Brisbane, Perth, Adelaide, Darwin and Hobart all below 1%.
KPMG notes this is continuing to support rental growth and investment returns even as recent changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax settings temper broader investor appetite.
Darwin's unit market illustrates the yield story most clearly: Cotality data cited in the report shows the city's rents rose 10.1% annually to the June quarter, lifting gross yields to 6.1% - nearly double the 3.3% recorded in Sydney and Brisbane.
